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Fannie Mae raises mortgage rate forecast amid tariff uncertainty

Boise, ID (CBS2) — Fannie Mae has revised its forecast for the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage, now predicting it will average 6.8% throughout 2025 and conclude the year at 6.6%. Marking the second consecutive upward revision by the mortgage finance company, which initially projected rates to average 6.2% by the end of 2025, later adjusting to 6.5% in January, according to Boise Regional Realtors.

The revisions come amid uncertainty surrounding the implementation of former President Donald Trump’s tariff agenda, which could impact homebuilding costs and long-term borrowing rates. Higher tariffs may lead to goods inflation and drive interest rates higher, with Trump having previously threatened, then suspended, significant tariffs on Canada and Mexico.

“Economic growth was strong to start the year as fourth-quarter personal consumption data came in above our expectations,” said Kim Betancourt, Fannie Mae’s vice president of multifamily economic and strategic research. “However, ongoing uncertainty around trade policy adds risk to our GDP and inflation outlooks, which may have implications for mortgage rates, although the direction—up or down—would depend on a number of factors,” she added.

In related news, Idaho’s population grew by 1.6% in 2024, ranking it seventh nationally for growth. The state also led the nation with a 2.2% increase in birth rates. Despite this growth, Idaho’s median home price remains higher than 10 of the top 15 fastest-growing states in the country. While major changes in home prices have not been observed in 2025, current median prices in large counties like Ada are below the 2024 median.

Boise has experienced the fastest growth in high-end home prices among major markets nationwide over the past eight years. Since 2017, list prices at the 90th percentile in Boise have surged 150% to nearly $1.3 million, the largest increase among the country’s 1,000 largest metro areas. This trend is believed to have been bolstered by individuals seeking quieter lifestyles with access to the outdoors during and after the COVID-19 pandemic.

Additionally, the city of Nampa announced that Tractor Supply will build a new distribution center to serve the Pacific Northwest’s 200 stores. The $225 million facility will span 865,000 square feet and create 500 jobs. There are currently 12 retail stores in Idaho, with Emmett, Kuna, and Middleton nearby.



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