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Buyers’ market emerging in key regions
An increase in new property listings in January resulted in more choices for buyers, particularly in Vancouver, Fraser Valley, and Toronto. With greater inventory available, bargaining power has shifted towards buyers, pushing home prices down in these areas. The MLS Home Price Index fell below year-ago levels in all three markets, with Toronto registering its largest monthly decline in 15 months.
The trade war, which was officially launched by the US in March against Canada, Mexico, and China, is expected to further weaken market confidence. According to RBC Economics, if uncertainty persists, it could negatively impact the typically busy spring housing season.
Regional market trends
Toronto’s housing market saw a sharp 29% drop in resales between January and February, marking the steepest one-month decline since the early days of the COVID-19 pandemic. Increased listings have given buyers more negotiating power, leading to a 1.5% month-over-month drop in the city’s composite MLS HPI. Condo prices bore the brunt of this decline as a wave of new completions and hesitant investors added downward pressure. If the trade war results in job losses, further price declines could follow, RBC Economics noted.
In Vancouver, home resales fell by over 15% in February, erasing gains from the past six months. Both buyers and sellers appeared hesitant due to trade uncertainty, while existing inventory remained relatively high. The region’s MLS HPI declined 1.1% annually, with condo prices slipping 2.8%, while detached home prices showed slight growth at 1.8%.
Calgary’s market saw a 12% drop in resales from January, its sharpest decline in 16 months. Although activity remained strong historically, increased inventory has eased supply pressures, tempering price growth. The city’s composite MLS HPI rose just 0.9% year-over-year, a sharp contrast to the nearly 11% increase seen in spring 2024.
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