The Problem: Former Defense Secretary Robert Gates halted F-22 production in 2009, believing it was unnecessary for counterinsurgency warfare. However, rising threats from China and Russia have exposed flaws in that decision.
It Gets Worse: The Air Force originally sought 750 Raptors but settled for 185, many now outdated. With the high-cost Next-Generation Air Dominance (NGAD) fighter facing potential budget cuts, the F-22 remains crucial for air superiority.
What To Do Now? Deploying Raptors to East Asia enhances deterrence, particularly against China. While costly to maintain, the F-22’s unmatched stealth and maneuverability justify its continued role. Gates’ decision, once pragmatic, now appears shortsighted amid evolving global threats.
Did the U.S. Retire the F-22 Too Soon? A Costly Miscalculation
During the height of the War on Terror in the late 2000s, U.S. Secretary of Defense Robert Gates examined the fleet of Air Force fighter jets. Gates determined that the F-22 was better suited to fighting a Cold War adversary, and not eliminating insurgents and terrorists.
In 2009, he called for stopping the production of the F-22. Gates figured the Air Force in any case had a sufficient number of Raptors to ward off future foes.
The Rise of the Rival Powers
Little did Gates know that the threat landscape would soon change. Russia annexed Crimea in 2014, showing its willingness to bully its neighbors. More stealth aircraft like the F-35 would need to be sent to NATO allies.
Meanwhile, China was becoming more aggressive. It flew missions to intimidate Taiwan. It began militarizing various islands in the South China Sea. The country worked on its aircraft carrier force, and it built numerous surface warships and submarines.
More F-22s might have been welcome as threats grew from Russia and China. The F-22 stopped production in 2011. The Air Force originally wanted 750 Raptors, which would have been expensive enough to crowd out the Joint Strike Fighter program that eventually became the F-35. Right now, there are about 185 F-22s, and some of those are not on active duty.
The Next-Generation Air Dominance (NGAD) fighter is slated to replace the F-22, but its future is far from clear. On one hand, the program is progressing. The Air Force is choosing between two engines that might eventually move the aircraft toward production. But early estimates reveal the NGAD could cost as much as $300 million per plane.
Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth has called for an eight percent cut to defense budgets each year for the next five years. That amounts to about $50 billion a year in spending reduction.
Hegseth unveiled his priorities, and manned fighters are not on the list. The NGAD might not escape the chopping block.
If the NGAD program is cancelled, that means the F-22 is here to stay. And that means Gates might have made a mistake when deciding to halt the program 16 years ago.
Indeed, the Raptor was not needed for ground strikes against insurgents and terrorists. It is designed for air superiority and is not the best choice for close air support. That likely influenced Gates’ thinking. But he failed to forecast that the threat picture would change.
Send Those Raptors to East Asia as Much as Possible
The best role for F-22s is to fly them often in East Asia to intimidate China and North Korea—and that is what the Air Force is doing. Raptors were deployed to South Korea and Guam in 2024 for military exercises.
Unfortunately for the F-22 program, the older Raptors are expensive to fly, and their avionics are outdated. The Air Force is planning to retire these older models to help pay for the F-35 program—and perhaps the NGAD, if it escapes the chopping block.
Gates may have been right to limit the F-22, considering some models became obsolete so quickly.
Gates made a tough decision. He guessed correctly that the war in Afghanistan would go on for a long time, and the F-22 did not have much of a role in that fight. He was correct in assessing that the F-22 was a “Cold War” fighter as well.
However, the F-22 is a great airplane with awesome stealth attributes, and the kind of speed and maneuverability that make pilots excited. Further, a cold war may be ongoing now with Russia and China.
The United States’ fighter force is limited without many F-22s. The Air Force should keep sending the Raptors it has to exercises in East Asia. Pilots need realistic training, and the F-22s will be required if conflict ever arises with China.
F-22: A History in Pictures
HILL AIR FORCE BASE, Utah — An F-22 Raptor taxis after landing here. The jet, from the 27th Fighter Squadron at Langley Air Force Base, Va., deployed here Oct. 15 for the next-generation fighter’s first deployment for live weapons bomb training exercise. (U.S. Air Force photo by Staff Sgt. Samuel Rogers)
An F-22 Raptor from the 27th Fighter Squadron out of Langley Air Force Base, Va., participates in Red Flag 13-3 March 5, 2013, at Nellis AFB, Nev. Red Flag is a realistic combat training exercise involving the air forces of the United States and its allies. During the exercise, aircrews and ground crews train to fight, survive and win together. (U.S. Air Force photo by Senior Airman Matthew Lancaster)
F-22 Raptor: Image Credit: Creative Commons.
Image: Creative Commons.
Image: Creative Commons.
Image Credit: Santos Caceres via Instagram Account.
An F-22 Raptor from Langely Air Force Base, V.a. flies by after receiving fuel from a KC-135 Stratotanker from McConnell Air Force Base, Kans., July 27, 2016 during exercise Red Flag, hosted by Nellis Air Force Base, Nev. Red Flag 16-3 is aimed at teaching service members how to integrate air, space and cyberspace elements. (U.S. Air Force photo/Tech. Sgt. David Salanitri)
Two F-22 Raptors from Tyndall Air Force Base, Fla., fly in formation. Its combination of stealth, supercruise, maneuverability, and integrated avionics, coupled with improved supportability, represents an exponential leap in warfighting capabilities. The F-22 performs both air-to-air and air-to-ground missions allowing full realization of operational concepts vital to the 21st century Air Force. (U.S. Air Force photo/Senior Master Sgt. Thomas Meneguin)
About the Author: Dr. Brent M. Eastwood
Brent M. Eastwood, PhD is the author of Don’t Turn Your Back On the World: a Conservative Foreign Policy and Humans, Machines, and Data: Future Trends in Warfare plus two other books. Brent was the founder and CEO of a tech firm that predicted world events using artificial intelligence. He served as a legislative fellow for U.S. Senator Tim Scott and advised the senator on defense and foreign policy issues. He has taught at American University, George Washington University, and George Mason University. Brent is a former U.S. Army Infantry officer. He can be followed on X @BMEastwood.
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