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The Defence Secretary has suggested the real-terms increase in defence spending year-on-year will be only around half the £13.4 billion figure cited by the Prime Minister.
John Healey said in real terms, the figure “would be something over £6 billion” and claimed the “definition of defence numbers can be done in different ways”.
Ministers have been accused of playing “silly games with numbers” over their assertion on Tuesday that the increase in defence spending to 2.5% of GDP by 2027 would mean £13.4 billion more would be spent on defence every year.
Sir Keir Starmer announced the increase in defence spending from its current 2.3% to 2.5% in response to “tyrant” Russian leader Vladimir Putin and amid uncertainty over the US’s commitment to European security. However it comes at the expense of the aid budget, which is being slashed.
“Let me spell it out, that means spending £13.4 billion more on defence every year from 2027,” Sir Keir told the Commons.
Speaking to BBC Breakfast on Wednesday, Mr Healey was asked about criticism of the figures and said “the definition of defence numbers can be done in different ways”.
He explained: “You can take it as a percentage of GDP, you can take it as cash terms.
“What Keir Starmer was talking about yesterday was the increase in hard cash that will be spent on defence in two years’ time compared to what’s being spent today.”
Pushed on whether the £13.4 billion figure would be correct if the assumption was that the Government did not increase the defence budget year-on-year in line with inflation, Mr Healey said: “That’s a cash number.”
He added: “In real terms, taking in inflation, it would be something over £6 billion. Either way, this is a big boost for defence.”
Paul Johnson, the director of the Institute for Fiscal Studies, said on Tuesday that ministers were playing “silly games with numbers” and had provided “totally inconsistent figures” measured against different benchmarks.
Govt playing silly games with numbers. Extra £13.4bn for defence must be against counterfactual of no cash increase, not of constant % of GDP. While £5.3bn cut in aid compares 0.5% GDP to 0.3% GDP.
Thats how a £5.3bn cut “pays for”£13.4bn increase. Totally inconsistent figures
— Paul Johnson (@PJTheEconomist) February 25, 2025
The think tank’s associate director, Ben Zaranko, had earlier suggested the increase in spending would amount to around £6 billion, rather than the £13.4 billion the PM had indicated.
Mr Zaranko said: “As a minor note to what is a major announcement, the Prime Minister followed in the steps of the last government by announcing a misleadingly large figure for the ‘extra’ defence spending this announcement entails.
“An extra 0.2% of GDP is around £6 billion, and this is the size of the cut to the aid budget. Yet he trumpeted a £13 billion increase in defence spending.
“It’s hard to be certain without more detail from the Treasury, but this figure only seems to make sense if one thinks the defence budget would otherwise have been frozen in cash terms.”
The Conservatives have also said the figures “don’t seem to be completely right”.
Shadow defence secretary James Cartlidge told Times Radio he supports the principle of increasing spending but he has some questions in relation to the figures.
“Because they don’t seem to be completely right in the cold light of day, it’s fair to say,” he told the station.
“But we obviously need to look at that, understand what it means, because there was this £13.4 billion extra – that is the entire aid budget and the aid budget is being cut by, we understand about 40%, so we’re looking at where the difference arises.”
The commitment to increase spending comes ahead of the Prime Minister flying to Washington to meet President Donald Trump. Mr Trump has repeatedly called for European nations to increase the amount they are putting into defence budgets.
Protecting the British people is my number one priority. pic.twitter.com/ErwcuMuCMV
— Keir Starmer (@Keir_Starmer) February 25, 2025
Mr Healey told Sky News he thinks the US president will welcome the move and said the PM will be saying to his counterpart: “We have a special depth to our relationship that goes back decades, not just on security and defence, but that’s at its heart.
“Keir Starmer will say we want to see that relationship go from strength to strength.”
Sir Keir will follow French President Emmanuel Macron in visiting Mr Trump in Washington DC, and Ukrainian leader Volodymyr Zelensky is expected to visit on Friday.
Kyiv has agreed to a minerals deal which had been pushed for by the new US administration, according to Ukrainian officials, which could be signed off when their president visits Washington.
Mr Zelensky had claimed the 50% share of rare minerals initially demanded by America would have been akin to selling his nation, but Ukraine now appears satisfied the deal will lead to a continued flow of US military support in its war against Russia.
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