How Donald Trump’s return to the White House is reshaping global affairs

If Prime Minister Justin Trudeau continues to comply with Donald Trump’s demands regarding “security on the northern border,” it is reasonable to assume that no major shake-up in U.S.-Canada relations will occur. A precedent for this was set in 2019, when, following similar trade threats, Canada conceded during the USMCA renegotiation by expanding access to American dairy products by 3.6% — and the dispute essentially ended there.

Trump’s stance toward Mexico remains an extension of his domestic policy and campaign promises. His threats of economic pressure — including 25% tariffs on Mexican imports, which totaled $456 billion in 2023 — are paired with the demand that Mexico secure the border, crack down on drug trafficking, and curb migrant flows.

For the Trump administration, Mexico must act as a “shield” against continued migration from Latin America, fully cooperating with the mass deportations Trump pledged throughout 2024, when he vowed to expel up to 11 million people from the U.S.

Trump is effectively continuing his first-term policies, emphasizing the completion of the “Great Wall of America.” Between 2017 and 2021, 654 miles of border wall were built, and an additional $3.8 billion was allocated for further construction in January this year.

Beyond border security, Trump is escalating U.S. military and intelligence operations against drug cartels in Mexico and across Latin America. A notable example was the 2024 operation targeting the leaders of the Sinaloa Cartel. Trump has since announced new strikes on cartel bosses operating inside Mexico.

Ultimately, if Mexico seeks stable relations with Trump’s White House, its primary role will be actively blocking migration from the south and welcoming U.S. intelligence and special forces agents, who will periodically enter Mexican territory to “eliminate” cartel leaders.

South and Central America

Donald Trump’s primary demand from Latin American countries is to assist with mass deportations and cooperate in the fight against drug cartels. Those who refuse face tariffs and trade restrictions — an approach that defines his administration’s policy across the continent.

Trump is particularly focused on El Salvador, Honduras, and Nicaragua, pressing these nations to take in a larger share of asylum seekers and prevent their movement northward toward the U.S. In 2022 alone, 541,000 migrants from the “Northern Triangle” arrived in the United States.

Trump wants to radically reduce the number of undocumented people at the border with Mexico by all means at his disposal — regardless of their country of origin. Since 2022, more than 22,000 Russians have attempted to cross the border, many fleeing political repression. Others arrive from South American countries with a history of persecution based on religion, ethnicity, or politics — such as the 50,000 Venezuelans who arrived in September 2023 alone. But Trump’s Washington makes no special allowances for either group.

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